Madrid-Barajas Airport International Traffic Forecast 2035

Traffic Forecasts

Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport

International Segment · 2025–2035

PRESENTED BY:

David Palacios de Andrés & Erik López Navarrete

Module 3 – IPA (Airport Planning & Assessment)

April 2026

Introduction & Methodology

This analysis focuses exclusively on the international segment of Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport, using official traffic and economic data spanning over two decades.

AENA

Official international traffic data for Madrid-Barajas Airport

World Bank

GDP per capita data (income per capita) as economic indicator

Analysis Period

Data collected between 2004 and 2025 — 21 years of historical records

03

Forecasting Model

Forecasting Model – Scatter Plot Analysis

Annual Operations vs. GDP per Capita

Annual Passengers vs. GDP per Capita

🔧 Tool: Microsoft Excel

📐 Method: Least Squares Regression

📊 Axes: GDP per Capita (X) vs. Passengers/Operations (Y)

04

Future Scenarios (2025–2035)

Based on projected annual GDP growth of 1.9% over the next 10 years

World Bank: 1.7–2.0%

European Central Bank

IMF World Economic Outlook

Optimistic Scenario

Uninterrupted growth following the GDP-traffic regression trend with no additional constraints. Maximum infrastructure utilization projected.

No additional restrictions

Pessimistic Scenario

Growth conditioned on 2025 actual data aligning with forecasts. More conservative infrastructure dimensioning.

Data-validated constraint

GDP growth rate of 1.9% p.a. validated against World Bank, ECB, and Eurostat projections (range: 1.7%–2.0%)

Design Day Analysis – Busy Day

IATA DEFINITION:

The Busy Day is the second busiest day of an average week in the peak month — used to size airport infrastructure without over-dimensioning for exceptional events.

IATA Busy Day Criterion

2nd busiest day of the average week in the peak month. Balances realistic demand vs. infrastructure cost.

TUESDAY

Design Day: Tuesday

Identified as the design day using pivot table analysis of historical traffic data.

Special Events Excluded

Peak days associated with special events (holidays, sporting events, etc.) are removed to avoid distorting the design parameters.

Methodology ensures dimensioning for typical high-demand periods rather than exceptional spikes

Capacity Parameters – PHP & AHP

Peak hour calculations for infrastructure dimensioning

PHP

Peak Hourly Passengers

Maximum number of passengers processed during the peak hour on the design day. Core metric for terminal dimensioning.

AHP

Peak Hourly Aircraft

Maximum number of aircraft movements during the peak hour on the design day. Core metric for airside capacity.

Equivalent Days

Constant factor maintained for Madrid-Barajas based on historical traffic patterns.

Equivalent Hours

Normalizing factor applied to peak hour calculations across all analysis years.

Design Horizon

All parameters projected to 2035 for terminal and airside infrastructure planning.

Fleet Analysis & Aircraft Categories

International segment favors large-capacity wide-body aircraft

241

Average passengers per aircraft

International segment average

E / F

Dominant ICAO Categories

Wide-body / Heavy aircraft

> 10

Minimum passenger filter

Aircraft with <10 pax excluded to avoid data distortion

Category E – Large wide-body (e.g. Boeing 777, A330)

Category F – Super heavy (e.g. A380, Boeing 747)

Data filter applied: aircraft with fewer than 10 passengers were excluded to ensure statistical reliability

CONCLUSIONS

Key Takeaways

Infrastructure for Large Aircraft

The international segment is dominated by wide-body aircraft (ICAO Cat. E/F), requiring infrastructure sized for an average of 241 passengers per movement.

GDP-Driven Solid Growth

Strong correlation between GDP per capita and passenger/operations volume confirms robust 1.9% annual growth trajectory for the 2025–2035 horizon.

10-Year Design Readiness

Both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios provide a solid basis for planning terminal capacity, airside infrastructure, and gate dimensioning through 2035.

David Palacios de Andrés & Erik López Navarrete · Module 3 – IPA · April 2026

Bibliographic References

Sources used for economic projections and traffic data

European Central Bank

(2025). "Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area." ECB Publications.

Eurostat

(2025). "GDP and main components — current prices." European Commission Statistical Office.

World Bank

(2025). "World Bank Open Data: GDP linked series." World Bank Open Data Platform.

International Monetary Fund

(2025). "World Economic Outlook Database." IMF Publications.

AENA

(2025). "Official international traffic statistics — Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport." AENA Estadísticas.