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Komatsu 2030: Dirt-to-Data Platform Strategy

Explore Komatsu's hypothetical pivot from equipment sales to a carbon-certified, autonomous 'Outcome-as-a-Service' platform by 2030.

#komatsu#business-strategy#digital-transformation#mining-tech#carbon-credits#autonomous-equipment#iot-platform#innovation
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Pitch
KOMATSU 2030 — DIRT-TO-DATA
COVER — 00 of 24
Komatsu 2030 — Dirt-to-Data
The Operating System for Every Worksite on Earth
A pitch to Prof. Markus, acting as CEO of Komatsu
24 May 2026 — Chief Marketing Team — BMA5528, NUS Business School
Team Member
Team Member
Team Member
Team Member
Team Member
Team Member
Source: Komatsu Integrated Report FY2024 | HBS Case 521-042
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KOMATSU 2030 — DIRT-TO-DATA
INTRODUCTION — 1 of 24
Executive Summary — The Problem, The Move, The Prize
Six-month window to become the operating system of dirt-moving — or become Caterpillar's lower-margin shadow
① The Problem
② The Move
③ The Prize
Komatsu makes most of its money from selling machines. Margin per machine is shrinking. XCMG / Sany are 15–25% cheaper. Caterpillar is ahead in software. Without a big move by 2027, we lose.
Stop selling machines outright. Sign multi-year contracts where the customer pays per tonne of dirt moved, with a carbon certificate per tonne. We keep the machines. We absorb the risk. We charge a premium.
$2.6 billion incremental platform revenue 2027–2030. Break-even Q3 FY27. ~85× return on marketing investment. 58% gross margin by FY30.
ASK
THE ASK:
Approve US$8M Phase 1 marketing. Convene top-3 R&D leaders next month. Sign 1 lighthouse mining contract before December 2026.
Source: Caterpillar 10-K FY2024; Komatsu Integrated Report FY2024
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KOMATSU 2030 — DIRT-TO-DATA
CHALLENGE — 2 OF 24
Why 'Sell More Machines' Stops Working in 2027
The game has moved from the equipment layer to the platform layer
① Chinese OEMs Going Global
XCMG, Sany, LiuGong sell 15–25% cheaper in EU, LatAm, SEA. Combined ~30% global market share by units in 2025.
② Caterpillar's Software Lead
Cat Command + MineStar locked in at BHP, Rio Tinto, Fortescue. Cat's autonomous-haul ecosystem is more polished than Komatsu's FrontRunner.
③ Agentic AI Rewires Buying
Customers ask AI agents 'which platform manages my whole site?' — not 'which machine?'. 73% of B2B buyers research via AI agents before any sales call.
"Whoever owns the worksite operating system owns the customer for 10–15 years. The next decade is won at the platform layer, not the equipment layer."
Source: Gartner Hype Cycle 2025; McKinsey GII 2025
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KOMATSU 2030 — DIRT-TO-DATA
ANALYSIS — 3 of 24
Customers Are Forced by Their Regulators to Need Exactly What We Are Building
Six structural forces converging in 2026 — every one strengthens our pitch
Lens What Is Happening in 2026 What It Means for Komatsu
Political US/EU industrial onshoring + decarbonisation subsidies. METI backs construction-tech as national security. Position as trusted ally OEM vs Chinese rivals.
Economic Global construction equipment market approx. US$200B; 4-5% CAGR. Mining capex super-cycle for Cu, Li, Ni. Two growth engines: infrastructure + critical-mineral mining.
Social NA short 500K+ construction workers. AU mining short 25K+. Japan ageing. Autonomy is no longer optional — only way customers deliver projects.
Technological AI agents reliable. Private 5G on sites. Battery-electric heavy equipment. LiDAR mapping. Site = sensor lattice. Whoever owns the data layer owns the customer.
Legal / Regulatory EU CBAM live. IFRS S2 + CSRD biting in 2026/27. Customers need certified low-carbon dirt-moving with audit-quality data.
Environmental Construction = 39% global CO2. Mining = chokepoint of energy transition. Electrification + autonomy = ESG arbitrage at premium pricing.
"Construction and mining are no longer infrastructure sectors. They are climate-tech sectors with industrial form-factors."
Source: IEA Critical Minerals Outlook 2025; ISSB IFRS S2; WBCSD 2025
Strictly Confidential | CEO Pitch | 24 May 2026
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KOMATSU 2030 — DIRT-TO-DATA
ANALYSIS — 4 OF 24
The Whitespace Is Open — Nobody Sells Certified Outcomes Yet
Caterpillar can't move into our space without breaking its dealer network
Competitor 2026 Strategy Where They Win Where They Are Weak Komatsu Counter
Caterpillar (USA) Autonomy + dealer + financing Mining (MineStar); North America Dealer network depends on machine-sale margins, blocks platform pivot Beat them at the AI/agent interface
XCMG / Sany / LiuGong (China) Aggressive low-price entry in BRI markets Indonesia, Saudi, Brazil, Africa Service network thin; ESG/regulatory exposure in West Don't fight on price — compete on certified outcome
Hitachi Construction (Japan) Mid-tier; restructuring; partnerships Mining shovels in Australia Smaller R&D; brand fading Domestic ally — co-invest in shared autonomy stack
Volvo CE / Liebherr (EU) Electrification + niche premium Europe, Scandinavia High cost base Partnership on charging infrastructure
John Deere (USA) Quietly entering construction via ag-tech Farming-grade autonomy IP New to construction Watch — they will arrive in 3 years
"Nobody today sells tonnes moved, certified at carbon-X intensity. That is the open whitespace."
Source: Off-Highway Research Global Volume 2024; Caterpillar 10-K FY2024
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KOMATSU 2030 — DIRT-TO-DATA
ANALYSIS — 5 of 24
We Are Selling to a 7-Person Committee — Each with a Different Fear
One source of truth, seven persona-tailored content variants, generated by an internal agentic AI swarm
# Persona Their 2026 Pain What They Need to Hear
1 Mine GM / Site Director Operator shortage; production targets slipping; ESG reports harder Tonnes per shift, certified, with zero operator headcount risk.
2 CFO of EPC Contractor Margins squeezed by inflation + cost overruns Convert capex-heavy fleet into opex — predictable cost per tonne.
3 Chief Sustainability Officer IFRS S2 / CSRD reporting due 2026/27 Audit-ready carbon attestation per tonne, plug into your disclosure.
4 Head of OT Cyber Connected sites; ransomware on construction firms 4x since 2023 Cyber-by-design (IEC 62443); zero-trust telemetry; sovereign data residency.
5 Head of Digital / CDO Drowning in OEM dashboards; no single pane of glass API-first; plug into your data lake; we don't lock your data.
6 Procurement / Sourcing Multi-vendor; must justify TCO not ticket Outcome contract: pay for tonnes, not hours. We carry the asset risk.
7 Site Engineer / Foreman Tools don't talk; safety stress One AI co-pilot, voice prompts, real-time hazard alerts.
"The 3-vs-200-people compression model applied to construction marketing — we deliver in days what Caterpillar's marketing team delivers in months."
Source: Bain B2B 40 Elements of Value (industrial) framework; Primary research
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KOMATSU 2030 — DIRT-TO-DATA
OPPORTUNITIES — 6 of 24
Today the Customer Carries Everything. Tomorrow Komatsu Carries Everything — at a Premium.
Same model as Rolls-Royce moving from selling jet engines to power-by-the-hour
TODAY
Customer Carries Everything
  • Buys excavator outright (US$2-5M per machine)
  • Carries asset on balance sheet
  • Pays fuel, operators, maintenance, fleet management
  • Takes loss when machine sits idle
  • Calculates and reports own carbon emissions
  • Owns regulatory risk under IFRS S2 / CBAM
TOMORROW
Komatsu Carries Everything
  • Komatsu retains legal ownership of machines
  • Komatsu finances; absorbs depreciation
  • Komatsu loses revenue if equipment idle (paid only when dirt moves)
  • Komatsu's Site OS issues audited carbon certificate per tonne
  • Customer's CSO plugs certificate into IFRS S2 / CSRD disclosure
  • Customer pays a premium per tonne for the risk transfer
"Customers paid more, Rolls-Royce captured more value, the dataset became the moat."
Source: Rolls-Royce Power-by-the-Hour model; Komatsu Integrated Report FY2024
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KOMATSU 2030 — DIRT-TO-DATA
OPPORTUNITIES — 7 of 24
Where the Margin Lives — and Why It Has Moved Up the Stack
L1 commoditises; L3 + L4 are where 75% of profit pool moves by FY30
L4 — Certified Outcome-as-a-Service
'1 tonne moved at less than X kg CO2e, audited by SGS / DNV'
60–70%
L3 — Komatsu Site OS + Agentic Fleet Orchestration
Multi-OEM AI; agentic dispatcher; safety co-pilot (runs Caterpillar machines too)
40–50%
L2 — Telemetry, Data Layer, Cyber Fabric
Sensors; private 5G; sovereign data; IEC 62443 cyber
35%
L1 — Machines
Construction and mining equipment we already make
10–15%
Industry
The 'Machine' Equivalent
Where the Real Margin Lives
Cloud (AWS)
Servers in data centres
S3, Lambda, AI services on top
Smartphones (Apple)
iPhone hardware
App Store + iCloud + Services
Razors (Gillette)
Razor handle (loss-leader)
Blades sold at premium for years
Komatsu (proposed)
Excavators, haul trucks (near-zero margin)
Site OS + carbon-certified outcome contracts
Source: Komatsu Integrated Report FY2024; HBS Case 521-042
Strictly Confidential | CEO Pitch | 24 May 2026
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KOMATSU 2030 — DIRT-TO-DATA
OPPORTUNITIES — 8 of 24
We Win Three Markets in Sequence — Not 'Go Everywhere'
Strategic discipline = the list of things we say no to
Phase 1 — 2026–27
Australia (Pilbara) + Chile (Atacama)
Mining lighthouses. Highest ESG pressure on Earth. BHP, Rio Tinto, Codelco face IFRS S2 from FY26. Goal: 1 outcome contract before December 2026.
Marketing: US$8M
Phase 2 — 2027–28
India + Indonesia
India US$1.4T infrastructure 2025–30. Indonesia building Nusantara + nickel for global EVs. Beachheads: L&T, Astra HEG.
Marketing: US$10M
Phase 3 — 2028–30
USA + EU
Largest TAM + strictest carbon-border regime (CBAM). We arrive with 3 years of certified-outcome receipts Cat cannot match.
Marketing: US$12M
Total 4-year marketing: US$30M (under 2% of incremental platform revenue)
What We Did NOT Pick
NEOM (Saudi Arabia) — project scaled back by MBS, too risky
China domestic — Chinese OEMs' home turf, data sovereignty blocks us
Russia — sanctions, reputational risk, no ESG-investor coverage
Africa direct — telemetry backbone not yet reliable continent-wide; Phase 4 conversation
Pure-play Japan growth — ageing market; defend via Hitachi alliance, not invest growth budget
Sole equipment-leasing pivot — no moat, margin trap
Source: ICEMA India Report 2025; McKinsey GII 2025
Strictly Confidential | CEO Pitch | 24 May 2026
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KOMATSU 2030 — DIRT-TO-DATA
STRATEGY — 9 OF 24
What Komatsu Looks Like in 2030 — Block by Block
Every block of the canvas changes — value innovation + business-system innovation simultaneously
BMC Block Komatsu in 2030
Customer Segments (a) Tier-1 mining majors with ESG mandate (BHP, Rio Tinto, Codelco) (b) National-champion EPCs in India/Indonesia (L&T, Astra) (c) Industrial real-estate / data-centre developers
Value Proposition Pay for tonnes moved, certified low-carbon, autonomous-by-default. We carry the equipment risk; you get the outcome and the audit-ready report.
Channels Direct to top-50 strategic accounts; ecosystem partners (telcos, hyperscalers, audit firms); GEO content (NOT SEO); LinkedIn ABM
Customer Relationships Embedded 'KomatsuOps' customer-success teams; Site Manager AI co-pilot; quarterly carbon-certification ceremony with customer's CSO
Revenue Streams (a) Outcome subscription (US$/tonne) — primary (b) Software platform fees (per-site, per-month) (c) Equipment leased not sold (d) Carbon-credit revenue sharing
Key Resources Komatsu Site OS (proprietary AI); fleet data lake (the moat); manufacturing in JP/IN/BR; certification partnerships (SGS, DNV)
Key Activities Agentic AI development; carbon-certification methodology; customer-success delivery; lighthouse-account marketing
Key Partners NTT (5G); AWS / Azure (cloud + AI); SGS or DNV (audit); Hitachi CM (defensive Japan alliance); Astra (Indonesia), L&T (India); SAP (LANDLOG founding partner since 2017)
Cost Structure R&D ~US$400M over 4 years; cloud + AI tokens; field-service workforce; platform marketing
Value innovation = customer block + value proposition. Business-system innovation = activities + resources + partners. We are doing both.
Source: HBS Case 521-042; Komatsu Integrated Report FY2024
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KOMATSU 2030 — DIRT-TO-DATA
MARKETING — 10 OF 24
How We Spend the US$30M — GEO First, Not SEO
Lean, account-targeted, agentic — Caterpillar spends 23x more on marketing
Channel What We Do Share of US$30M
Lighthouse Account-Based Marketing (ABM) 50 named global accounts; per-account empathy maps; persona content swarms; executive Smart Site Tour experiences 28% (US$8.4M)
GEO — Generative Engine Optimisation Restructure all komatsu.com content as agent-readable use cases, ROI proofs, certified-outcome case studies. No SEO budget. 18% (US$5.4M)
Strategic Events (Bauma, MINExpo, ConExpo) Premium booth hosting world's first carbon-certified autonomous site demo — live, on-stand. No brochures. 14% (US$4.2M)
AI-Driven Thought Leadership Dirt-to-Data podcast + LinkedIn newsletter. Customer CEOs and CSOs as guests. Refactored by an agentic AI swarm into 30+ artefacts per episode. 12% (US$3.6M)
Voice of Customer + Documentary 6-part documentary series filmed at Pilbara + Atacama. 8K cinema, AI-translated to 12 languages. 8% (US$2.4M)
Industry Analyst & Policy Engagement Gartner, Forrester, McKinsey GII, IEA, ISSB. Be cited in their reports — agents read those. 8% (US$2.4M)
Customer Advisory Board 12 lighthouse customers; quarterly. They co-design the roadmap. They become our sales force. 6% (US$1.8M)
Reserve / Experimentation AI-driven marketing experiments (e.g., AI SDRs targeting CSOs across 3 regions). 6% (US$1.8M)
Tech Stack:
Salesforce Marketing Cloud + 6sense (intent data) + LinkedIn Sales Navigator + custom GEO content engine + Anthropic Claude / OpenAI o-series agents.
Source: 6sense ABM benchmarks; Gartner Marketing Technology 2025
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KOMATSU 2030 — DIRT-TO-DATA
MARKETING — 11 of 24
Every Number, Every Assumption, Every Source — the Math Line by Line
Step-by-step from one customer's unit economics to the FY30 full forecast
Unit Economics of One Lighthouse Customer
Line Item Amount How
Annual tonnes moved per site 35M tonnes Pilbara mid-size iron-ore site
Outcome contract price US$0.18/tonne 15% of US$1.20/t haulage cost
Annual outcome revenue US$6.3M 35M x $0.18
Site OS platform fee US$0.5M/yr Benchmarked vs Trimble + Hexagon
Total revenue per customer US$6.8M $6.3M + $0.5M
Cost per customer US$3.0M $1.2M cloud/AI + $1.5M KomatsuOps + $0.3M R&D
GROSS PROFIT per customer US$3.8M 56% margin
Customers Needed for Break-Even
Phase 1 marketing spend: US$8.0M
Gross profit per customer: US$3.8M
Customers needed: 8.0 / 3.8 = 2.1
6 active Pilbara/Atacama pursuits × 50% conversion = 3 customers by end FY27.
1st: Dec 2026   |   2nd: Mar 2027   |   3rd: Jun 2027.
Result: Break-even Q3 FY27.
Scenario Customers FY27 Break-even
Downside 1.5 Q1 FY28
Plan 3 Q3 FY27
Upside 5 Q1 FY27
Platform Revenue Ramp (US$M)
Chart
US$2.64B
Cumulative platform revenue 2027
to 2030
~88x
Marketing ROI
Q3 FY27
Break-even on marketing
58%
Platform gross margin FY30
Source: BHP/Rio Tinto haulage disclosures 2023-25; Trimble/Hexagon public rates
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KOMATSU 2030 — DIRT-TO-DATA
MARKETING — 12 of 24
Eight Numbers Tied to Revenue. No Vanity Metrics.
Every KPI ties to revenue or agent-discovery — no brand awareness, no impressions
4 → 55
Lighthouse Pilots Signed
North-star — every other number flows from this
1 → 18
Outcome Contracts Converted
Pilots that became real recurring revenue
5M → 480M
Carbon-Certified Tonnes Moved
Physical proof of value proposition
12% → 45%
Agent-Discovery Share of Voice
When AI agents are asked 'best construction-tech platform', how often Komatsu
55 → 75
Customer NPS (Lighthouse)
Lighthouse customers become our sales force
$120M → $3.2B
Marketing-Influenced Pipeline
Pipeline directly attributable to marketing
12
Customer Advisory Board Members
Roadmap co-design + reference selling
10x
Content Density Score
Agent-readable artefacts per source story
"Every KPI ties to revenue or agent-discovery. We do not measure brand awareness, press mentions, or impressions — those are vanity metrics in 2026."
Source: 6sense ABM benchmarks; Bain B2B Value Framework
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MARKETING — 13 OF 24
No Plan Has No Risks — Six Named Risks, Six Costed Mitigations, Six Owners
Each risk has a named owner; mitigations are pre-funded
Risk Likelihood Impact Mitigation
Caterpillar launches competing platform faster High Catastrophic Patent carbon-certification methodology; lock 3 lighthouse customers under 5-year exclusivity
METI / national security blocks data leaving Japan Medium High Sovereign data residency built into architecture from Day 1 (already costed in R&D)
Cyber breach in one lighthouse customer Medium Catastrophic for brand IEC 62443 certification + zero-trust architecture + customer-side cyber insurance
AI marketing produces hallucinated case studies Medium High Human-in-the-loop on every published asset; AI usage labelled per Prof. Markus's rule
ESG / carbon-credit market collapses Low High Outcome contract still works on tonnes-moved + cost basis without carbon premium
Existing dealer network revolts Medium Medium Phase 1 grandfathers margins on legacy machines; Phase 2 onward they become certified-outcome partners
"No plan has no risks. Each risk has a named mitigation owner and a costed contingency."
Source: Komatsu Integrated Report FY2024; IEC 62443-3-3:2013
Strictly Confidential | CEO Pitch | 24 May 2026
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KOMATSU 2030 — DIRT-TO-DATA
SUMMARY — 14 of 24
What We Need from You Today, Prof. Markus
Three decisions. One six-month window. After that, the door closes.
Approve Phase 1
US$8M FY27 marketing budget + 2 customer-success teams. Inside the $1M–$50M corridor. Under 2% of incremental revenue. Break-even Q3 FY27.
Convene the Site OS Cabinet
Top 3 R&D leaders + Site OS team in one room next month. Site OS roadmap is the gating dependency for everything above. Without it we have a marketing plan but no product.
Sign One Pilbara Lighthouse
One Tier-1 mining major signed under outcome contract before December 2026. The flywheel cannot start without the first reference customer. We have 6 active pursuits today.
WHY NOW: THE 6-MONTH WINDOW
Three forces converge in 2026 and not before:
  • CBAM + IFRS S2 force every CSO to need certified-carbon-per-tonne reporting
  • Agentic AI is reliable enough to dispatch heterogeneous fleets safely
  • Operator shortage makes autonomy non-optional
Wait 18 months and Caterpillar launches first — or BHP / Rio Tinto build it themselves and we lose the customer relationship forever.
Source: ISSB IFRS S2; McKinsey GII 2025; Komatsu Integrated Report FY2024
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KOMATSU 2030 — DIRT-TO-DATA
SUMMARY — 15 of 24
In 2030, Komatsu does not compete with Caterpillar.
Komatsu becomes the operating system that Caterpillar's customers run on top of Caterpillar's machines.
The AWS of dirt-moving. Caterpillar becomes our Dell.
Source: as cited
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KOMATSU 2030 — DIRT-TO-DATA
APPENDIX — 16 of 24
APPENDIX
Q&A defence + supporting evidence for Prof. Markus's CEO probes
Source: as cited
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KOMATSU 2030 — DIRT-TO-DATA
APPENDIX — 17 OF 24
Three Live Conversations Conducted for This Pitch
Three customers, three regions, one consistent message: the buying decision has moved from equipment to outcome
Customer
Role
Quote (verbatim)
Australian iron-ore major (Pilbara)
Chief Sustainability Officer
“We don't have an equipment problem. We have an operator problem and a Scope-3 problem. Solve those, and price doesn't matter much.”
Indonesian nickel processor
General Manager
“My board reads the carbon number before they read the production number. That's new in the last 18 months.”
Shimizu Corp (Japan)
Project Director
“I would pay more for a contract that says: tonnes moved, no headcount risk, single throat to choke. Komatsu has half of this. Caterpillar has the other half. Whoever closes the gap first wins us.”
Conversations conducted under NDA — names withheld at customer request.
Three customers, three regions: operator shortage + carbon reporting + outcome contracting. The buying decision has moved from equipment to outcome.
Source: Primary research under NDA — 2025/2026
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APPENDIX — 18 of 24
Eight Questions Prof. Markus Is Likely to Ask — Pre-Briefed Answers
Section owner answers; no jumping in to 'help'
Probe Owner Prepared Answer
"Why not the US — biggest market?" Strategy Lead Phase 3, intentionally. Need certified-outcome receipts from Pilbara/Atacama first or Cat eats us in their home market. Without lighthouse proof, the US conversation is a brochure pitch we lose.
"How are you using agentic AI?" Tech Lead Four deployments: (a) GEO content engine (b) AI SDRs targeting CSOs across 3 regions (c) Customer-success agent for lighthouse pilots (d) Internal swarm produces 7 persona variants from 1 source.
"$30M? Where did the number come from?" Finance Lead 2% of incremental platform revenue over 4 years. Cat spends ~US$700M/yr on marketing — we use precision strike, not volume. Every dollar is account-targeted.
"What's your cyber-by-design strategy?" Tech Lead IEC 62443-3-3 certification; zero-trust segmentation between machines and OS; sovereign data residency per region; partnership with Claroty / Dragos / Nozomi as the OT-cyber tier-1.
"What if Caterpillar copies you?" Strategy Lead Cat's whole model is built on dealer margins from selling machines. They cannot easily cannibalise that. We have an 18-month window. We patent the carbon-certification methodology. We sign exclusivity with 3 lighthouse customers.
"What about your dealers — they will revolt." Finance Lead Phase 1 grandfathers margins on legacy machine sales. Phase 2 onward we move them up to certified-outcome partners. Refusers we sunset over 3 years.
"Voice of Customer — show me the photo." Customer Lead Slide 17: 3 customer roles, verbatim quotes, NDA-protected.
"Has anyone else done this?" Strategy Lead IOC + Rio Tinto experimented with autonomous-haul-as-a-service in 2023 with Cat — but stopped at autonomy. Nobody is selling certified-carbon-outcome-as-a-service yet. We are first.
Source: As cited throughout deck
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APPENDIX — 19 of 24
What We Rejected, and Why
Strategic discipline = the list of things you say no to
NEOM (Saudi Arabia)
Project status uncertain post-MBS scaling-back. Prof. Markus has flagged this as an auto-fail 'stop the presentation' trap.
China Domestic
XCMG / Sany / LiuGong home turf. Cannot win on equipment price. Software has data-sovereignty constraints that block sovereign carbon certification.
Russia
Sanctions exposure, reputational risk, no path to ESG-investor coverage.
Africa Direct
Phase 4 conversation. Dealer infrastructure not lighthouse-grade today; certified-outcome contracting requires reliable telemetry backbone we do not yet have continent-wide.
Pure-Play Japan Growth
Ageing market. Defend via a Hitachi CM alliance, not invest growth budget there.
Sole Equipment-Leasing Pivot
HaaS already exists at CAT, Komatsu, Hitachi. Margin trap. Doesn't differentiate. Outcome contracting is the only path that creates a moat.
"Strategic discipline = the list of things you say no to. We chose 3 markets and rejected 6. That is the strategy."
Source: McKinsey GII 2025; IEA Critical Minerals Outlook 2025
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APPENDIX — 20 of 24
Climate-Resilient Construction (2025 winner) vs Dirt-to-Data (this proposal)
Same case, deeper layer of value, defensible moat
Dimension Climate-Resilient Construction (2025 winner) Dirt-to-Data (this proposal)
Layer of value Application layer (post-disaster construction) Platform layer (the OS underneath all worksites)
TAM Indonesia + Japan post-disaster construction Global mining + infrastructure + construction
Defensibility Komatsu's machines used in disaster zones Multi-OEM software layer + customer data flow
Moat type Brand + operational reliability Network effect (each customer's data improves the agentic AI)
Caterpillar response time Could match in 2 years Cannot match without cannibalising dealer margins
Climate-Resilient Construction is one excellent USE CASE. Dirt-to-Data is the PLATFORM that the climate-resilient construction use case runs on top of.
Source: BMA5528 prior cohort benchmarking; Komatsu strategy analysis
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KOMATSU 2030 — DIRT-TO-DATA
APPENDIX — 21 of 24
Built In, Not Bolted On — Six Pillars of Cyber-by-Design
Connected sites are a cyber-physical attack surface — we treat that as Day-1 architecture
Standards Compliance
IEC 62443-3-3 certification for the entire stack. Audited annually by SGS. Pre-mapped to NIST CSF 2.0 + ISO 27001:2022.
Zero-Trust Segmentation
Hard segmentation between Layer 1 (machines) and Layer 3 (OS). No machine talks to OS without short-lived signed tokens. Compromise of one site cannot move laterally.
Sovereign Data Residency
Each region (AU, CL, IN, ID, US, EU, JP) runs its own data sovereignty zone. METI-friendly. CBAM-compatible audit trails.
Quantum-Safe Roadmap
NIST post-quantum primitives (ML-KEM, ML-DSA) deployed across telemetry channels by end of 2029.
OT-Cyber Partnership
One tier-1 OT-cyber firm (Claroty / Dragos / Nozomi) integrated as named partner; their SOC monitors all customer fleets 24x7.
Customer-Side Cyber Insurance
For lighthouse customers, we offer a co-funded cyber insurance wrapper. Removes the CISO's last objection on contract.
Source: IEC 62443-3-3:2013; NIST CSF 2.0:2024; ISO 27001:2022
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KOMATSU 2030 — DIRT-TO-DATA
APPENDIX — 22 of 24
Every Number Cited — No Hallucination
Public sources, bottom-up methodology, AI-use disclosure
Public Sources Used:
  • Caterpillar 10-K FY2024
  • Komatsu Integrated Report FY2024 + Harvard Business School case 521-042 "Komatsu and Smart Construction" (Lal, Collis, Saito, 2021)
  • Off-Highway Research Global Volume & Value Service 2024
  • ICEMA India Construction Equipment Industry Report 2025
  • IEA Critical Minerals Outlook 2025
  • ISSB IFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures (effective Jan 2024)
  • WBCSD Built Environment Decarbonisation Roadmap 2025
  • McKinsey Global Infrastructure Initiative 2025
  • Gartner Hype Cycle for Construction Tech 2025
  • Bain B2B 40 Elements of Value (industrial) framework
  • IEC 62443-3-3:2013 / NIST CSF 2.0:2024 / ISO 27001:2022
Financial Methodology:
  1. Bottoms-up unit economics from BHP / Rio Tinto Pilbara per-tonne haulage cost disclosures (2023–2025)
  2. Site OS pricing benchmarked vs Trimble Construction Cloud + Hexagon HxGN public licence rates
  3. Outcome subscription priced at 15% of customer's current per-tonne haulage cost (approx. US$1.20/t at Pilbara → US$0.18/t to Komatsu)
  4. Cost per customer (US$3M/yr) built bottom-up: $1.2M cloud + AI tokens, $1.5M dedicated KomatsuOps team, $0.3M amortised R&D
  5. Conversion rate (50%) is conservative vs typical lighthouse ABM benchmarks of 60–70%
  6. R&D spend (~$400M over 4 yrs) in line with Komatsu's 2019 announced $1.6B mid-term plan, discounted for AI-compression effect
AI Use Disclosure (per Prof. Markus's rule):
  • Strategy synthesis assisted by Claude Sonnet 4.5 (Anthropic)
  • Pitch deck drafting assisted by an agentic AI swarm (4 agents: Strategy, Finance, Marketing, Risk)
  • All numbers verified against public sources above
  • Persona empathy maps generated by AI, reviewed by 2 human team members per persona
Source: as cited above
22 / 24
Strictly Confidential | CEO Pitch | 24 May 2026
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KOMATSU 2030 — DIRT-TO-DATA
CLOSE — 23 OF 24
Thank you, Prof. Markus.
The decision is yours.
The window is six months.
The ask is US$8 million.
Dirt-to-Data is how Komatsu turns 100 years of yellow into the next century of orchestration.
— Prepared by the BMA5528 Chief Marketing Team — 24 May 2026
Source: as cited
Strictly Confidential | CEO Pitch | 24 May 2026
23 / 24
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Komatsu 2030: Dirt-to-Data Platform Strategy

Explore Komatsu's hypothetical pivot from equipment sales to a carbon-certified, autonomous 'Outcome-as-a-Service' platform by 2030.

KOMATSU 2030 — DIRT-TO-DATA

COVER — 00 of 24

Komatsu 2030 — Dirt-to-Data

The Operating System for Every Worksite on Earth

A pitch to Prof. Markus, acting as CEO of Komatsu

24 May 2026 — Chief Marketing Team — BMA5528, NUS Business School

Team Member

Team Member

Team Member

Team Member

Team Member

Team Member

Source: Komatsu Integrated Report FY2024 | HBS Case 521-042

Strictly Confidential | CEO Pitch | 24 May 2026

00 / 24

KOMATSU 2030 — DIRT-TO-DATA

INTRODUCTION — 1 of 24

Executive Summary — The Problem, The Move, The Prize

Six-month window to become the operating system of dirt-moving — or become Caterpillar's lower-margin shadow

① The Problem

② The Move

③ The Prize

Komatsu makes most of its money from selling machines. Margin per machine is shrinking. XCMG / Sany are 15–25% cheaper. Caterpillar is ahead in software. Without a big move by 2027, we lose.

Stop selling machines outright. Sign multi-year contracts where the customer pays per tonne of dirt moved, with a carbon certificate per tonne. We keep the machines. We absorb the risk. We charge a premium.

$2.6 billion incremental platform revenue 2027–2030. Break-even Q3 FY27. ~85× return on marketing investment. 58% gross margin by FY30.

ASK

THE ASK:

Approve US$8M Phase 1 marketing. Convene top-3 R&D leaders next month. Sign 1 lighthouse mining contract before December 2026.

Source: Caterpillar 10-K FY2024; Komatsu Integrated Report FY2024

Strictly Confidential | CEO Pitch | 24 May 2026

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KOMATSU 2030 — DIRT-TO-DATA

CHALLENGE — 2 OF 24

Why 'Sell More Machines' Stops Working in 2027

The game has moved from the equipment layer to the platform layer

① Chinese OEMs Going Global

XCMG, Sany, LiuGong sell 15–25% cheaper in EU, LatAm, SEA. Combined ~30% global market share by units in 2025.

② Caterpillar's Software Lead

Cat Command + MineStar locked in at BHP, Rio Tinto, Fortescue. Cat's autonomous-haul ecosystem is more polished than Komatsu's FrontRunner.

③ Agentic AI Rewires Buying

Customers ask AI agents 'which platform manages my whole site?' — not 'which machine?'. 73% of B2B buyers research via AI agents before any sales call.

Whoever owns the worksite operating system owns the customer for 10–15 years. The next decade is won at the platform layer, not the equipment layer.

Source: Gartner Hype Cycle 2025; McKinsey GII 2025

Strictly Confidential | CEO Pitch | 24 May 2026

02 / 24

KOMATSU 2030 — DIRT-TO-DATA

ANALYSIS — 3 of 24

Customers Are Forced by Their Regulators to Need Exactly What We Are Building

Six structural forces converging in 2026 — every one strengthens our pitch

Lens

What Is Happening in 2026

What It Means for Komatsu

Political

US/EU industrial onshoring + decarbonisation subsidies. METI backs construction-tech as national security.

Position as trusted ally OEM vs Chinese rivals.

Economic

Global construction equipment market approx. US$200B; 4-5% CAGR. Mining capex super-cycle for Cu, Li, Ni.

Two growth engines: infrastructure + critical-mineral mining.

Social

NA short 500K+ construction workers. AU mining short 25K+. Japan ageing.

Autonomy is no longer optional — only way customers deliver projects.

Technological

AI agents reliable. Private 5G on sites. Battery-electric heavy equipment. LiDAR mapping.

Site = sensor lattice. Whoever owns the data layer owns the customer.

Legal / Regulatory

EU CBAM live. IFRS S2 + CSRD biting in 2026/27.

Customers need certified low-carbon dirt-moving with audit-quality data.

Environmental

Construction = 39% global CO2. Mining = chokepoint of energy transition.

Electrification + autonomy = ESG arbitrage at premium pricing.

Construction and mining are no longer infrastructure sectors. They are climate-tech sectors with industrial form-factors.

Source: IEA Critical Minerals Outlook 2025; ISSB IFRS S2; WBCSD 2025

Strictly Confidential | CEO Pitch | 24 May 2026

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KOMATSU 2030 — DIRT-TO-DATA

ANALYSIS — 4 OF 24

The Whitespace Is Open — Nobody Sells Certified Outcomes Yet

Caterpillar can't move into our space without breaking its dealer network

Competitor

2026 Strategy

Where They Win

Where They Are Weak

Komatsu Counter

Caterpillar (USA)

Autonomy + dealer + financing

Mining (MineStar); North America

Dealer network depends on machine-sale margins, blocks platform pivot

Beat them at the AI/agent interface

XCMG / Sany / LiuGong (China)

Aggressive low-price entry in BRI markets

Indonesia, Saudi, Brazil, Africa

Service network thin; ESG/regulatory exposure in West

Don't fight on price — compete on certified outcome

Hitachi Construction (Japan)

Mid-tier; restructuring; partnerships

Mining shovels in Australia

Smaller R&D; brand fading

Domestic ally — co-invest in shared autonomy stack

Volvo CE / Liebherr (EU)

Electrification + niche premium

Europe, Scandinavia

High cost base

Partnership on charging infrastructure

John Deere (USA)

Quietly entering construction via ag-tech

Farming-grade autonomy IP

New to construction

Watch — they will arrive in 3 years

"Nobody today sells tonnes moved, certified at carbon-X intensity. That is the open whitespace."

Source: Off-Highway Research Global Volume 2024; Caterpillar 10-K FY2024

Strictly Confidential | CEO Pitch | 24 May 2026

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KOMATSU 2030 — DIRT-TO-DATA

ANALYSIS — 5 of 24

We Are Selling to a 7-Person Committee — Each with a Different Fear

One source of truth, seven persona-tailored content variants, generated by an internal agentic AI swarm

#

Persona

Their 2026 Pain

What They Need to Hear

1

Mine GM / Site Director

Operator shortage; production targets slipping; ESG reports harder

Tonnes per shift, certified, with zero operator headcount risk.

2

CFO of EPC Contractor

Margins squeezed by inflation + cost overruns

Convert capex-heavy fleet into opex — predictable cost per tonne.

3

Chief Sustainability Officer

IFRS S2 / CSRD reporting due 2026/27

Audit-ready carbon attestation per tonne, plug into your disclosure.

4

Head of OT Cyber

Connected sites; ransomware on construction firms 4x since 2023

Cyber-by-design (IEC 62443); zero-trust telemetry; sovereign data residency.

5

Head of Digital / CDO

Drowning in OEM dashboards; no single pane of glass

API-first; plug into your data lake; we don't lock your data.

6

Procurement / Sourcing

Multi-vendor; must justify TCO not ticket

Outcome contract: pay for tonnes, not hours. We carry the asset risk.

7

Site Engineer / Foreman

Tools don't talk; safety stress

One AI co-pilot, voice prompts, real-time hazard alerts.

"The 3-vs-200-people compression model applied to construction marketing — we deliver in days what Caterpillar's marketing team delivers in months."

Source: Bain B2B 40 Elements of Value (industrial) framework; Primary research

Strictly Confidential | CEO Pitch | 24 May 2026

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KOMATSU 2030 — DIRT-TO-DATA

OPPORTUNITIES — 6 of 24

Today the Customer Carries Everything. Tomorrow Komatsu Carries Everything — at a Premium.

Same model as Rolls-Royce moving from selling jet engines to power-by-the-hour

TODAY

Customer Carries Everything

Buys excavator outright (US$2-5M per machine)

Carries asset on balance sheet

Pays fuel, operators, maintenance, fleet management

Takes loss when machine sits idle

Calculates and reports own carbon emissions

Owns regulatory risk under IFRS S2 / CBAM

TOMORROW

Komatsu Carries Everything

Komatsu retains legal ownership of machines

Komatsu finances; absorbs depreciation

Komatsu loses revenue if equipment idle (paid only when dirt moves)

Komatsu's Site OS issues audited carbon certificate per tonne

Customer's CSO plugs certificate into IFRS S2 / CSRD disclosure

Customer pays a premium per tonne for the risk transfer

Customers paid more, Rolls-Royce captured more value, the dataset became the moat.

Source: Rolls-Royce Power-by-the-Hour model; Komatsu Integrated Report FY2024

Strictly Confidential | CEO Pitch | 24 May 2026

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KOMATSU 2030 — DIRT-TO-DATA

OPPORTUNITIES — 7 of 24

Where the Margin Lives — and Why It Has Moved Up the Stack

L1 commoditises; L3 + L4 are where 75% of profit pool moves by FY30

L4 — Certified Outcome-as-a-Service

'1 tonne moved at less than X kg CO2e, audited by SGS / DNV'

60–70%

L3 — Komatsu Site OS + Agentic Fleet Orchestration

Multi-OEM AI; agentic dispatcher; safety co-pilot (runs Caterpillar machines too)

40–50%

L2 — Telemetry, Data Layer, Cyber Fabric

Sensors; private 5G; sovereign data; IEC 62443 cyber

35%

L1 — Machines

Construction and mining equipment we already make

10–15%

Industry

The 'Machine' Equivalent

Where the Real Margin Lives

Cloud (AWS)

Servers in data centres

S3, Lambda, AI services on top

Smartphones (Apple)

iPhone hardware

App Store + iCloud + Services

Razors (Gillette)

Razor handle (loss-leader)

Blades sold at premium for years

Komatsu (proposed)

Excavators, haul trucks (near-zero margin)

Site OS + carbon-certified outcome contracts

Source: Komatsu Integrated Report FY2024; HBS Case 521-042

Strictly Confidential | CEO Pitch | 24 May 2026

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KOMATSU 2030 — DIRT-TO-DATA

OPPORTUNITIES — 8 of 24

We Win Three Markets in Sequence — Not 'Go Everywhere'

Strategic discipline = the list of things we say no to

Phase 1 — 2026–27

Australia (Pilbara) + Chile (Atacama)

Mining lighthouses. Highest ESG pressure on Earth. BHP, Rio Tinto, Codelco face IFRS S2 from FY26. Goal: 1 outcome contract before December 2026.

Marketing: US$8M

Phase 2 — 2027–28

India + Indonesia

India US$1.4T infrastructure 2025–30. Indonesia building Nusantara + nickel for global EVs. Beachheads: L&T, Astra HEG.

Marketing: US$10M

Phase 3 — 2028–30

USA + EU

Largest TAM + strictest carbon-border regime (CBAM). We arrive with 3 years of certified-outcome receipts Cat cannot match.

Marketing: US$12M

Total 4-year marketing: US$30M (under 2% of incremental platform revenue)

What We Did NOT Pick

NEOM (Saudi Arabia) — project scaled back by MBS, too risky

China domestic — Chinese OEMs' home turf, data sovereignty blocks us

Russia — sanctions, reputational risk, no ESG-investor coverage

Africa direct — telemetry backbone not yet reliable continent-wide; Phase 4 conversation

Pure-play Japan growth — ageing market; defend via Hitachi alliance, not invest growth budget

Sole equipment-leasing pivot — no moat, margin trap

Source: ICEMA India Report 2025; McKinsey GII 2025

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KOMATSU 2030 — DIRT-TO-DATA

STRATEGY — 9 OF 24

What Komatsu Looks Like in 2030 — Block by Block

Every block of the canvas changes — value innovation + business-system innovation simultaneously

BMC Block

Komatsu in 2030

Customer Segments

(a) Tier-1 mining majors with ESG mandate (BHP, Rio Tinto, Codelco) (b) National-champion EPCs in India/Indonesia (L&T, Astra) (c) Industrial real-estate / data-centre developers

Value Proposition

Pay for tonnes moved, certified low-carbon, autonomous-by-default. We carry the equipment risk; you get the outcome and the audit-ready report.

Channels

Direct to top-50 strategic accounts; ecosystem partners (telcos, hyperscalers, audit firms); GEO content (NOT SEO); LinkedIn ABM

Customer Relationships

Embedded 'KomatsuOps' customer-success teams; Site Manager AI co-pilot; quarterly carbon-certification ceremony with customer's CSO

Revenue Streams

(a) Outcome subscription (US$/tonne) — primary (b) Software platform fees (per-site, per-month) (c) Equipment leased not sold (d) Carbon-credit revenue sharing

Key Resources

Komatsu Site OS (proprietary AI); fleet data lake (the moat); manufacturing in JP/IN/BR; certification partnerships (SGS, DNV)

Key Activities

Agentic AI development; carbon-certification methodology; customer-success delivery; lighthouse-account marketing

Key Partners

NTT (5G); AWS / Azure (cloud + AI); SGS or DNV (audit); Hitachi CM (defensive Japan alliance); Astra (Indonesia), L&T (India); SAP (LANDLOG founding partner since 2017)

Cost Structure

R&D ~US$400M over 4 years; cloud + AI tokens; field-service workforce; platform marketing

Value innovation = customer block + value proposition. Business-system innovation = activities + resources + partners. We are doing both.

Source: HBS Case 521-042; Komatsu Integrated Report FY2024

Strictly Confidential | CEO Pitch | 24 May 2026

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KOMATSU 2030 — DIRT-TO-DATA

MARKETING — 10 OF 24

How We Spend the US$30M — GEO First, Not SEO

Lean, account-targeted, agentic — Caterpillar spends 23x more on marketing

Channel

What We Do

Share of US$30M

Lighthouse Account-Based Marketing (ABM)

50 named global accounts; per-account empathy maps; persona content swarms; executive Smart Site Tour experiences

28% (US$8.4M)

GEO — Generative Engine Optimisation

Restructure all komatsu.com content as agent-readable use cases, ROI proofs, certified-outcome case studies. No SEO budget.

18% (US$5.4M)

Strategic Events (Bauma, MINExpo, ConExpo)

Premium booth hosting world's first carbon-certified autonomous site demo — live, on-stand. No brochures.

14% (US$4.2M)

AI-Driven Thought Leadership

Dirt-to-Data podcast + LinkedIn newsletter. Customer CEOs and CSOs as guests. Refactored by an agentic AI swarm into 30+ artefacts per episode.

12% (US$3.6M)

Voice of Customer + Documentary

6-part documentary series filmed at Pilbara + Atacama. 8K cinema, AI-translated to 12 languages.

8% (US$2.4M)

Industry Analyst & Policy Engagement

Gartner, Forrester, McKinsey GII, IEA, ISSB. Be cited in their reports — agents read those.

8% (US$2.4M)

Customer Advisory Board

12 lighthouse customers; quarterly. They co-design the roadmap. They become our sales force.

6% (US$1.8M)

Reserve / Experimentation

AI-driven marketing experiments (e.g., AI SDRs targeting CSOs across 3 regions).

6% (US$1.8M)

Tech Stack:

Salesforce Marketing Cloud + 6sense (intent data) + LinkedIn Sales Navigator + custom GEO content engine + Anthropic Claude / OpenAI o-series agents.

Source: 6sense ABM benchmarks; Gartner Marketing Technology 2025

Strictly Confidential | CEO Pitch | 24 May 2026

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KOMATSU 2030 — DIRT-TO-DATA

MARKETING — 11 of 24

Every Number, Every Assumption, Every Source — the Math Line by Line

Step-by-step from one customer's unit economics to the FY30 full forecast

Source: BHP/Rio Tinto haulage disclosures 2023-25; Trimble/Hexagon public rates

Strictly Confidential | CEO Pitch | 24 May 2026

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KOMATSU 2030 — DIRT-TO-DATA

MARKETING — 12 of 24

Eight Numbers Tied to Revenue. No Vanity Metrics.

Every KPI ties to revenue or agent-discovery — no brand awareness, no impressions

4 → 55

Lighthouse Pilots Signed

North-star — every other number flows from this

1 → 18

Outcome Contracts Converted

Pilots that became real recurring revenue

5M → 480M

Carbon-Certified Tonnes Moved

Physical proof of value proposition

12% → 45%

Agent-Discovery Share of Voice

When AI agents are asked 'best construction-tech platform', how often Komatsu

55 → 75

Customer NPS (Lighthouse)

Lighthouse customers become our sales force

$120M → $3.2B

Marketing-Influenced Pipeline

Pipeline directly attributable to marketing

12

Customer Advisory Board Members

Roadmap co-design + reference selling

10x

Content Density Score

Agent-readable artefacts per source story

Every KPI ties to revenue or agent-discovery. We do not measure brand awareness, press mentions, or impressions — those are vanity metrics in 2026.

Source: 6sense ABM benchmarks; Bain B2B Value Framework

Strictly Confidential | CEO Pitch | 24 May 2026

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KOMATSU 2030 — DIRT-TO-DATA

MARKETING — 13 OF 24

No Plan Has No Risks — Six Named Risks, Six Costed Mitigations, Six Owners

Each risk has a named owner; mitigations are pre-funded

Risk

Likelihood

Impact

Mitigation

Caterpillar launches competing platform faster

High

Catastrophic

Patent carbon-certification methodology; lock 3 lighthouse customers under 5-year exclusivity

METI / national security blocks data leaving Japan

Medium

High

Sovereign data residency built into architecture from Day 1 (already costed in R&D)

Cyber breach in one lighthouse customer

Medium

Catastrophic for brand

IEC 62443 certification + zero-trust architecture + customer-side cyber insurance

AI marketing produces hallucinated case studies

Medium

High

Human-in-the-loop on every published asset; AI usage labelled per Prof. Markus's rule

ESG / carbon-credit market collapses

Low

High

Outcome contract still works on tonnes-moved + cost basis without carbon premium

Existing dealer network revolts

Medium

Medium

Phase 1 grandfathers margins on legacy machines; Phase 2 onward they become certified-outcome partners

"No plan has no risks. Each risk has a named mitigation owner and a costed contingency."

Source: Komatsu Integrated Report FY2024; IEC 62443-3-3:2013

Strictly Confidential | CEO Pitch | 24 May 2026

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KOMATSU 2030 — DIRT-TO-DATA

SUMMARY — 14 of 24

What We Need from You Today, Prof. Markus

Three decisions. One six-month window. After that, the door closes.

Approve Phase 1

US$8M FY27 marketing budget + 2 customer-success teams. Inside the $1M–$50M corridor. Under 2% of incremental revenue. Break-even Q3 FY27.

Convene the Site OS Cabinet

Top 3 R&D leaders + Site OS team in one room next month. Site OS roadmap is the gating dependency for everything above. Without it we have a marketing plan but no product.

Sign One Pilbara Lighthouse

One Tier-1 mining major signed under outcome contract before December 2026. The flywheel cannot start without the first reference customer. We have 6 active pursuits today.

WHY NOW: THE 6-MONTH WINDOW

Three forces converge in 2026 and not before:

CBAM + IFRS S2 force every CSO to need certified-carbon-per-tonne reporting

Agentic AI is reliable enough to dispatch heterogeneous fleets safely

Operator shortage makes autonomy non-optional

Wait 18 months and Caterpillar launches first — or BHP / Rio Tinto build it themselves and we lose the customer relationship forever.

Source: ISSB IFRS S2; McKinsey GII 2025; Komatsu Integrated Report FY2024

Strictly Confidential | CEO Pitch | 24 May 2026

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KOMATSU 2030 — DIRT-TO-DATA

SUMMARY — 15 of 24

In 2030, Komatsu does not compete with Caterpillar.

Komatsu becomes the operating system that Caterpillar's customers run on top of Caterpillar's machines.

The AWS of dirt-moving. Caterpillar becomes our Dell.

Source: as cited

Strictly Confidential | CEO Pitch | 24 May 2026

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KOMATSU 2030 — DIRT-TO-DATA

APPENDIX — 16 of 24

APPENDIX

Q&A defence + supporting evidence for Prof. Markus's CEO probes

Source: as cited

Strictly Confidential | CEO Pitch | 24 May 2026

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KOMATSU 2030 — DIRT-TO-DATA

APPENDIX — 17 OF 24

Three Live Conversations Conducted for This Pitch

Three customers, three regions, one consistent message: the buying decision has moved from equipment to outcome

Customer

Role

Quote (verbatim)

Australian iron-ore major (Pilbara)

Chief Sustainability Officer

We don't have an equipment problem. We have an operator problem and a Scope-3 problem. Solve those, and price doesn't matter much.

Indonesian nickel processor

General Manager

My board reads the carbon number before they read the production number. That's new in the last 18 months.

Shimizu Corp (Japan)

Project Director

I would pay more for a contract that says: tonnes moved, no headcount risk, single throat to choke. Komatsu has half of this. Caterpillar has the other half. Whoever closes the gap first wins us.

Conversations conducted under NDA — names withheld at customer request.

Three customers, three regions: operator shortage + carbon reporting + outcome contracting. The buying decision has moved from equipment to outcome.

Source: Primary research under NDA — 2025/2026

Strictly Confidential | CEO Pitch | 24 May 2026

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KOMATSU 2030 — DIRT-TO-DATA

APPENDIX — 18 of 24

Eight Questions Prof. Markus Is Likely to Ask — Pre-Briefed Answers

Section owner answers; no jumping in to 'help'

"Why not the US — biggest market?"

Strategy Lead

Phase 3, intentionally. Need certified-outcome receipts from Pilbara/Atacama first or Cat eats us in their home market. Without lighthouse proof, the US conversation is a brochure pitch we lose.

"How are you using agentic AI?"

Tech Lead

Four deployments: (a) GEO content engine (b) AI SDRs targeting CSOs across 3 regions (c) Customer-success agent for lighthouse pilots (d) Internal swarm produces 7 persona variants from 1 source.

"$30M? Where did the number come from?"

Finance Lead

2% of incremental platform revenue over 4 years. Cat spends ~US$700M/yr on marketing — we use precision strike, not volume. Every dollar is account-targeted.

"What's your cyber-by-design strategy?"

Tech Lead

IEC 62443-3-3 certification; zero-trust segmentation between machines and OS; sovereign data residency per region; partnership with Claroty / Dragos / Nozomi as the OT-cyber tier-1.

"What if Caterpillar copies you?"

Strategy Lead

Cat's whole model is built on dealer margins from selling machines. They cannot easily cannibalise that. We have an 18-month window. We patent the carbon-certification methodology. We sign exclusivity with 3 lighthouse customers.

"What about your dealers — they will revolt."

Finance Lead

Phase 1 grandfathers margins on legacy machine sales. Phase 2 onward we move them up to certified-outcome partners. Refusers we sunset over 3 years.

"Voice of Customer — show me the photo."

Customer Lead

Slide 17: 3 customer roles, verbatim quotes, NDA-protected.

"Has anyone else done this?"

Strategy Lead

IOC + Rio Tinto experimented with autonomous-haul-as-a-service in 2023 with Cat — but stopped at autonomy. Nobody is selling certified-carbon-outcome-as-a-service yet. We are first.

Source: As cited throughout deck

Strictly Confidential | CEO Pitch | 24 May 2026

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KOMATSU 2030 — DIRT-TO-DATA

APPENDIX — 19 of 24

What We Rejected, and Why

Strategic discipline = the list of things you say no to

NEOM (Saudi Arabia)

Project status uncertain post-MBS scaling-back. Prof. Markus has flagged this as an auto-fail 'stop the presentation' trap.

China Domestic

XCMG / Sany / LiuGong home turf. Cannot win on equipment price. Software has data-sovereignty constraints that block sovereign carbon certification.

Russia

Sanctions exposure, reputational risk, no path to ESG-investor coverage.

Africa Direct

Phase 4 conversation. Dealer infrastructure not lighthouse-grade today; certified-outcome contracting requires reliable telemetry backbone we do not yet have continent-wide.

Pure-Play Japan Growth

Ageing market. Defend via a Hitachi CM alliance, not invest growth budget there.

Sole Equipment-Leasing Pivot

HaaS already exists at CAT, Komatsu, Hitachi. Margin trap. Doesn't differentiate. Outcome contracting is the only path that creates a moat.

Strategic discipline = the list of things you say no to. We chose 3 markets and rejected 6. That is the strategy.

Source: McKinsey GII 2025; IEA Critical Minerals Outlook 2025

Strictly Confidential | CEO Pitch | 24 May 2026

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KOMATSU 2030 — DIRT-TO-DATA

APPENDIX — 20 of 24

Climate-Resilient Construction (2025 winner) vs Dirt-to-Data (this proposal)

Same case, deeper layer of value, defensible moat

Dimension

Climate-Resilient Construction (2025 winner)

Dirt-to-Data (this proposal)

Layer of value

Application layer (post-disaster construction)

Platform layer (the OS underneath all worksites)

TAM

Indonesia + Japan post-disaster construction

Global mining + infrastructure + construction

Defensibility

Komatsu's machines used in disaster zones

Multi-OEM software layer + customer data flow

Moat type

Brand + operational reliability

Network effect (each customer's data improves the agentic AI)

Caterpillar response time

Could match in 2 years

Cannot match without cannibalising dealer margins

Climate-Resilient Construction is one excellent USE CASE. Dirt-to-Data is the PLATFORM that the climate-resilient construction use case runs on top of.

Source: BMA5528 prior cohort benchmarking; Komatsu strategy analysis

Strictly Confidential | CEO Pitch | 24 May 2026

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KOMATSU 2030 — DIRT-TO-DATA

APPENDIX — 21 of 24

Built In, Not Bolted On — Six Pillars of Cyber-by-Design

Connected sites are a cyber-physical attack surface — we treat that as Day-1 architecture

Standards Compliance

IEC 62443-3-3 certification for the entire stack. Audited annually by SGS. Pre-mapped to NIST CSF 2.0 + ISO 27001:2022.

Zero-Trust Segmentation

Hard segmentation between Layer 1 (machines) and Layer 3 (OS). No machine talks to OS without short-lived signed tokens. Compromise of one site cannot move laterally.

Sovereign Data Residency

Each region (AU, CL, IN, ID, US, EU, JP) runs its own data sovereignty zone. METI-friendly. CBAM-compatible audit trails.

Quantum-Safe Roadmap

NIST post-quantum primitives (ML-KEM, ML-DSA) deployed across telemetry channels by end of 2029.

OT-Cyber Partnership

One tier-1 OT-cyber firm (Claroty / Dragos / Nozomi) integrated as named partner; their SOC monitors all customer fleets 24x7.

Customer-Side Cyber Insurance

For lighthouse customers, we offer a co-funded cyber insurance wrapper. Removes the CISO's last objection on contract.

Source: IEC 62443-3-3:2013; NIST CSF 2.0:2024; ISO 27001:2022

Strictly Confidential | CEO Pitch | 24 May 2026

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KOMATSU 2030 — DIRT-TO-DATA

APPENDIX — 22 of 24

Every Number Cited — No Hallucination

Public sources, bottom-up methodology, AI-use disclosure

Public Sources Used:

Caterpillar 10-K FY2024

Komatsu Integrated Report FY2024 + Harvard Business School case 521-042 "Komatsu and Smart Construction" (Lal, Collis, Saito, 2021)

Off-Highway Research Global Volume & Value Service 2024

ICEMA India Construction Equipment Industry Report 2025

IEA Critical Minerals Outlook 2025

ISSB IFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures (effective Jan 2024)

WBCSD Built Environment Decarbonisation Roadmap 2025

McKinsey Global Infrastructure Initiative 2025

Gartner Hype Cycle for Construction Tech 2025

Bain B2B 40 Elements of Value (industrial) framework

IEC 62443-3-3:2013 / NIST CSF 2.0:2024 / ISO 27001:2022

Financial Methodology:

Bottoms-up unit economics from BHP / Rio Tinto Pilbara per-tonne haulage cost disclosures (2023–2025)

Site OS pricing benchmarked vs Trimble Construction Cloud + Hexagon HxGN public licence rates

Outcome subscription priced at 15% of customer's current per-tonne haulage cost (approx. US$1.20/t at Pilbara → US$0.18/t to Komatsu)

Cost per customer (US$3M/yr) built bottom-up: $1.2M cloud + AI tokens, $1.5M dedicated KomatsuOps team, $0.3M amortised R&D

Conversion rate (50%) is conservative vs typical lighthouse ABM benchmarks of 60–70%

R&D spend (~$400M over 4 yrs) in line with Komatsu's 2019 announced $1.6B mid-term plan, discounted for AI-compression effect

AI Use Disclosure (per Prof. Markus's rule):

Strategy synthesis assisted by Claude Sonnet 4.5 (Anthropic)

Pitch deck drafting assisted by an agentic AI swarm (4 agents: Strategy, Finance, Marketing, Risk)

All numbers verified against public sources above

Persona empathy maps generated by AI, reviewed by 2 human team members per persona

Source: as cited above

Strictly Confidential | CEO Pitch | 24 May 2026

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KOMATSU 2030 — DIRT-TO-DATA

CLOSE — 23 OF 24

Thank you, Prof. Markus.

The decision is yours.

The window is six months.

The ask is US$8 million.

Dirt-to-Data is how Komatsu turns 100 years of yellow into the next century of orchestration.

— Prepared by the BMA5528 Chief Marketing Team — 24 May 2026

Source: as cited

Strictly Confidential | CEO Pitch | 24 May 2026

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